Supposition
 

    Without knowledge of why the secrets behind the loss of Hannibal are so well guarded  examination of the events of the time may suggest a number of theories. So just supposing:-
    The aircraft was carrying a top secret assessment of the British position in the Far East, the Pacific, Malaya (Singapore) and India (loyalty - terrorist and independence movements).  Assessments of Russian intentions toward Afghanistan, India and (later) Pakistan may have been included.  After turning back to Juwani and transferring Hannibal's passengers to an Empire C-class flying boat, the passengers on board were collected at Karachi.(12) (It seems that the urgency to get 'flight CW197's' last passengers westward would originate from within India.) 
    There were still at the time, in Britain, elements of the government who were interested in negotiating with Germany to join a pact to defeat communist Russia. Russia was concerned that the Axis powers would persuade Britain to join them. Germany did not consider itself an enemy of Britain.(10).  The Venlo incident in November 1939 illustrates the confusion caused to the British Secret Intelligence Service. This may explain to some extent the reluctance of Britain to act decisively to counter the invasion of  the Netherlands and Belgium. Hence the period of "Phoney War". Any move to join Germany also required an alliance with Japan and negotiations over British territories, notably Hong Kong and Singapore. In parallel the United States had shown it was not interested in  further naval treaties with Japan, turning Japan from an ally to a rival, leaving Britain weakened in the East.(10). It became essential for Britain to buy an alliance with expansionist Japan as it was unable to strengthen it's far east forces. 
     'Hannibal' represented the material presence of Britain's major strategic investment of the age. The Empire airmail route to Australia and New Zealand was the important means (on par with Suez) of communication not only with India but also the Antipodean Dominions. It is quite plausible that as Britain felt weakened in the far east, the threat of an already expanding Japanese military and economic power became of paramount importance. Britain and Japan had been strong Allies. Reinstatement of that condition tempered Britain's relations with Japan throughout the 1930's, as Japan advanced into China.  Had Britain negotiated an arrangement with Japan where, in exchange for uncontested access to the Dutch oil-fields, tin and rubber in Indonesia, support against Russia and sovereignty over the former German Pacific colonies,  Britain would be guaranteed commercial reinstatement in China and the security of India, Burma, Australia, New Zealand and other Empire territories?(51)  However American interests in China would have been compromised as they were staunch supporters of the Chiang Kai-shek regime.(53)
     In a period when the British chiefs of staff had called for an avoidance of war until rearmament bore substantial fruit, Britain was actively persuading the Japanese to withdraw from the Axis cause. Prime would have been the need to contain the empire defence commitment, but also to eliminate the threat of a second front for the US whose industry would save Europe. Knowledge of such a treaty in transit aboard 'Hannibal' would undermine any support from the one essential ally Britain could hope to secure, then and subsequently. 
   After a period of stagnation in the development of long range short wave communication and the poor state of British cypher security it is likely that important diplomatic traffic was sent by courier.(9). Imperial Airways offered the fastest links. Surprisingly, courier security aboard the airline was reliant on unlocked secret safes and the courier sleeping on the documents to protect them at stopovers!(52)
    It was not until the resignation of Neville Chamberlain and his replacement by the anti-Nazi Winston Churchill in May 1940 that this state of indecision was ended.(8).  The fall of Holland, Dunkirk and the Battle of Britain followed Churchill's assumption of power. 
       So why the need for security to this day? The revelation that Britain might have been negotiating with Japan would affect the Anglo-American alliance, even today. Conversely elements of the British government  would want the treachery - at whatever stage - stopped. Thus subjecting the loss of Hannibal to the 100 year provision of the Official Secrets Act. As a courier mission the flight's compliment would be few. That the plane was reported as coming down in the Gulf of Oman suggests that it was not found even after an extensive search over land. The British government continued to assume the contents of the courier bag were safe if they could not find it. They knew it was well weighted and would not float to the surface. This kind of thinking was evident after the capture of a diplomatic bag - containing the reply and code books to the command in Singapore, (telling them there was little England could do to bolster the position)- from the Automedon a merchant ship intercepted in the Indian Ocean in November 1940 by the German commerce raider Atlantis. The captain was under orders to destroy the courier bag, but was killed by numerous shots that hit the bridge. The information went to the Japanese and persuaded them to attack Pearl Harbour first, followed quickly by the fall of Singapore. After losing the courier aircraft, (carrying an agreement?),  the capture of the Automedon may have compounded the disaster. Realization by members of the contemporary serving far east forces might cost the British government embarrassment and outrage, during their lifetime, from those held as POW's by the Japanese.

    Should gold bullion have been the cargo, (contrary to the officially released manifest) the need to protect its whereabouts would be the principle reason for secrecy. Why would gold have been on board? Imperial Airways had contracts to transport it. The future security of the sources in India were not yet under direct threat by the Japanese.  The British Empire need to pay for armaments from America, the paramount reason to move gold westward. Gold has a plausible role in the continuing secrecy. Until recovery is made, up to $28m would remain where it fell. The British Government was in March 1940 running a deficit equal to its revenue. (approx 998,000,000 pounds) (30)

    Until such time as the plane's location is revealed it may be considered Top Secret* even beyond its recovery. That there is still little available data on the loss suggests that Hannibal's loss could still cause problems in a volatile region that came under threat of being subverted by communist forces in the late 1950's and 1970's.
    Any published flight timings can be treated as suspect in view of the secrecy required, the "wreckage" found off Ras-al-Kuh a diversion. Interest by enemy units loitering in the area of  Ras-al-Kuh would alert British intelligence to a leak. 
   Should Hannibal already have been discovered, any evidence (wreckage) may have been removed to protect the secret that was considered so vital. That the secret is still protected suggests the diplomatic bag contained far reaching strategic assessments that still affect British policy in the region. 
   It was believed in the late1970's that Russia had designs on a warm water port with access to the Indian Ocean. Thus the Iranian revolution in 1979, Russia's involvement with Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq wars, the subsequent Gulf Wars, the overthrow of the Taliban and their outcomes along with today's "New Iron Curtain"(39) positioning by the US; are all part of the balancing act Britain plays in the region. 

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Richard Hobby, 2002 - 6. ( This page is a collation of information from various sources, please address any concerns about source and accreditation to page author )